End of the World Lessons from the Last Six Years

 As Things Once Were

Travel back in time a mere 10 years and I was watching episodes of Doomsday Preppers and scoffing at the majority of the semi-misguided preppers highlighted who were all preparing for some unlikely apocalyptic event. From nuclear war to an asteroid strike, or the most-referenced financial collapse of the United States, the people profiled on the program seemed almost obsessed and more than a little delusional when it came to the end of the world as we know it. I vividly recall one woman who was prepping for a pandemic and took great steps to purify and fortify her home against such an event.  

All-in-all most of the apocalyptic events people on the program were preparing for were all going to happen in the short term, and if you weren't prepared now it was too late; you were to become one of the many instant casualties when "x" apocalypse happened. The pandemic was going to happen within the next five years. The financial collapse and resulting social uprisings and government lock downs were all to happen within three to five years. An asteroid strike? - any time with just a few seconds notice. All of it seemed laughable....

And Now

...fast forward to today and some of those episodes and the preparations people were taking aren't all that laughable, nor unbelievable. In the last 5+ years we've lived through a very real global pandemic, severe social disruption caused by racial, political, and administrative tensions, and now, as of the writing of this post, a very real war between Russia and the Ukraine. Some of those people and the apocalyptic events they feared on Doomsday Preppers seem almost prophetic, now. However, that begs the question, how accurate were those who predicted and prepared for pandemic, social uprising, or even war? Let's get into a bit of detail surrounding just a few of the events which have occurred within the last five to six years.

1. 2016; Social and political division resulting from the results of a Presidential election.
2. 2019 - 2020; The start of the COVID-19 global pandemic and resulting shut down within the United States. Several protests are waged against mask and vaccination throughout the timeline of the pandemic.
3. 2020; the murder of George Floyd which triggered a wide-spread series of protests surrounding racial inequalities, most of which turned violent and resulted in looting.
4. 2020 - 2021; a hotly contested Presidential election steeped in conspiracy and culminating in violence framed in the events of January 6, 2021.
5. 2021; the resurgence of a highly contagious strain of COVID-19, Omicron, which dramatically rises infection numbers. Protests and other forms of threats against government and scientific officials around mask and vaccine mandates continue.
6. 2022; Russia invades Ukraine and elevates their nuclear readiness in response to global reaction against the invasion.

A Bit of a Disappointment - or a Dose of Reality?

The list above is pretty dramatic and impacting, and doesn't even cover all of what has transpired within the time frame, but these are the largest talking points when it comes to the last five to six years. Surely the sheer volume of events all rapidly occurring within this relatively small timeline is something to be concerned about, but how does this list compare to doomsday or SHTF/TEOTWAWKI proponents and their predictions?

I remember when the COVID-19 pandemic started in full swing and the U.S. went into lockdown there were several memes that hit the Interwebs mentioning, "I was promised a zombie apocalypse and all I got was "don't touch your face" and "wash your hands."" Where I live in central Indiana, we saw very few social protests or riots, and when the vaccine was announced and offered it showed that modern medical science had come through and provided an effective response to the pandemic. We were able to continue relatively stable and normal lives. Sure, we were secluded into working from home, myself and most of my friends on a permanent basis, but we were still able to take camping and hiking vacations, safely travel to Arizona and visit friends, and even expand our preparations and stocks under the threat of a diminished supply chain. 

Yes, there are disruptions. Yes there are extreme levels of stress that come from all of the factors listed above and more. However, despite each avenue a true apocalypse has failed to happen. People still go to work, spend time with their families, go to concerts and sporting events, and engage in all of the life tasks you'd expect even in the best of times, so how has this cumulative apocalypse failed?

A Swing and a Miss - several misses, actually.

1. Impact - Ten years ago it was claimed that the next pandemic would "kill millions". Citizens protesting both political and social issues claimed they would wreak havoc "across every state and in every neighborhood" until their voices were heard. It was also predicted that when supply chains would be disrupted people would start to starve in a 'matter of days' and that would lead to crimes of desperation on a scale never seen. Simply put, none of these came to pass. The COVID-19 pandemic did kill 5.97 million people (as of today), but compared to the 7.6 billion humans still populating this planet that number is pittance. The fact is that the impact of these apocalyptic events on the average human's life has been minimal.
2. Timeline - First I'd argue that the apocalypse just didn't measure up to the speed in which it was supposed to occur, and when events happen slow enough, we clever little humans can adapt and adjust to them quite nicely.  The U.S. economy did not fail in the three to five years as expected. Store shelves didn't empty after three days when the supply chain was disrupted as we were told they would. I'm still waiting for those "Chinese tanks" to come roaring down my street as I was promised would occur if the current President was elected. As of today the number of infections from COVID-19 are lower than they have been since the start, and they continue to decline, so even after two years of the pandemic we're not seeing bodies in the streets.
3. Location - At the time of this posting things are pretty bad in Ukraine and Russia, both. Canada and the U.S. are seeing protests by truckers who are upset about vaccination mandates required to move across the borders. These protesters have affected Ottawa in Canada and are expected to roll into Washington DC around the say of this posting, but what about the rest of the country, or even the rest of the world? Here in central Indiana we've seen a strong bump in gas and some grocery prices, but those are manageable, otherwise it's business as usual. The most impacting events are extremely regional, in other words, with disruptions and 'bumps' in normal daily life only occurring in relatively small pockets across the globe and the U.S. I'm sorry, but isn't the apocalypse supposed to affect each and every human on the planet, or at least the majority of us?

Huh. Friendly zombies. Who knew?

There are a few other disappointing factors, too. For instance since there are no zombies the satisfying activity of stabbing or decapitating shambling corpses as was promised is sadly missing. Severe mutations of heroic proportions as a result of nuclear radiation have also not occurred as expected. In short, despite all of the hype and anxiety by doomsday preppers, the apocalypse falls flat in several areas; it's just not as bad as what we were told it was going to be.

But...what's next?

Although I'm knocking the so-called TEOTWAWKI events experienced in the last five to six years as being nothing more than 'meh', I'm by no means underestimating what could come next, or even what could develop within the scope of these events going forward.  Here's a quick run down of what could come next that could make matters much worse and may, possibly, just live up to some of that lacking
hype...

1. 
   A new pandemic or a major resurgence in COVID-19; Although, as I said, numbers, fatalities, and infection rates surrounding the current pandemic continue to dramatically decline, all it would take is a new variant with Omicron's virility but a lot more lethal and we could start to see a sharp turn towards a true apocalypse. Additionally, just because COVID-19 is on the decline does not mean another pandemic level event couldn't kick off on COVID's heels; one which is far more lethal and viral than the one we just experienced and there are lot of solid scientific and medical reasons to support why that very think could happen. Viruses are like dictators; when one is eliminated or reduced it leaves a power vacuum ripe for the rise of another.
2. Renewed violence rooted in social or political events; At this point the United States continues to experience extreme lines of division and separation when it comes to it's citizens. Here in the year 2022, several federal level elections are occurring which could shift the balance of power and kick off additional protests and strengthen those divisions, and the next election year, 2024, is expected to be hotly contested with some of the anticipated candidates already laying groundwork around electoral fairness and equality. Depending on how things in those elections turn out, violent protests may emerge in late 2024 and beyond. Even without the harsh feelings surrounding elections, people are on edge regarding the rising gas and food prices as a result of the war between Russia and the Ukraine. Such things can continue to spur sporadic protests which could easily turn violent as a result of anger, frustration, and fear. 
3. Nuclear war; Yeah, this is the biggie, and it's an even greater possibility than I've seen in my past...and I was a teenager throughout the 1980s so I've seen some pretty frightening rhetoric around nuclear war in my life. The fact of the matter is, the invasion of the Ukraine isn't going as smoothly or quickly as expected by the Russian leadership. Ukraine is turning out to be more militarily resilient than anticipated. Couple that with the fact that 99% of the other countries on the globe are lashing out, in some fashion, against Russia for the blatant and unprovoked invasion and you have a very formidable super power backed into a corner by the rest of the world. Additionally that super power is currently being lead by someone who's been described as 'unstable' or 'off' in recent weeks and months, and that 'someone' also holds the keys to a massive nuclear arsenal. Plus, that 'someone' comes from a society and culture where it's considered very weak to back down or lose once you're fully committed to a task. All of that is a potent formula for a nuclear exchange which could escalate into Mad Max becoming a reality. 

Stress

On a side-note, the affects of stress in this day and age cannot be overstated. Stress causes people to lash out, act irrationally, break down and separate themselves from friends and family, follow irrational motivations and information, and even perform violence against their own country. The last five to six years have been stressful, to say the least, and although they've not lived up to the world-ending apocalyptic hype they've caused an enormous amount of stress among the people of the United States and the world in general. Dealing constructively or effectively with stress falls on a person's personality and skill in stress management...a skill set very few people have. Most of the time doomsday doesn't have to occur suddenly or affect everybody across the world...peoples reactions and responses to it can still be dramatic and unreasonable....which in turn leads to yet another stress factor in the form of social and cultural protest and violence. It's very much cyclical.

Final Thoughts

So, the apocalypses of the pandemic, political and social disruption, and even the most recent war have failed to end the world in the time or to the degree as promised. It's still a case where the next few years can be telling about TEOTWAWKI but if history is an indicator the pandemic will continue to diminish to the point it's no longer a pandemic, Russia will back down from it's aggression, and some more moderate politicians will step into the limelight and ease tensions throughout the United States to bring us back to being, well, united. And if not? Well, that's why we prepare; Hope for the Best. Prepare for the Worst.

Peace.